MLS has 5 matches on Saturday, September 12. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | D.C. United vs Atlanta United FC | 2.02 | 3.46 | 3.00 | 44.3% / 25.8% / 29.8% |
| 23:30 | FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC | 1.72 | 3.95 | 3.59 | 52.3% / 22.7% / 25.0% |
| 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC vs New York Red Bulls | 1.79 | 3.81 | 3.40 | 50.1% / 23.5% / 26.4% |
| 23:30 | Inter Miami CF vs Nashville SC | 1.77 | 3.86 | 3.45 | 50.7% / 23.3% / 26.0% |
| 23:30 | Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC | 1.75 | 3.89 | 3.49 | 51.2% / 23.0% / 25.7% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 19 books (Unibet (SE), PMU (FR), Unibet (NL), LeoVegas (SE), Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
D.C. United vs Atlanta United FC
23:30 UTC · Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia · Season record: D.C. United 5-10-7 / Atlanta United FC 6-4-13
The market leans D.C. United at 44.3%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 217.3% on the widest side.
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC
23:30 UTC · TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio · Season record: FC Cincinnati 8-7-7 / Charlotte FC 10-6-7
The market leans FC Cincinnati at 52.3%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 279.8% on the widest side.
Columbus Crew SC vs New York Red Bulls
23:30 UTC · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus, Ohio · Season record: Columbus Crew SC 6-5-12 / New York Red Bulls 7-6-10
The market leans Columbus Crew SC at 50.1%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 260.6% on the widest side.
Inter Miami CF vs Nashville SC
23:30 UTC · Nu Stadium, Miami, Florida · Season record: Inter Miami CF 12-7-4 / Nashville SC 16-5-2
The market leans Inter Miami CF at 50.7%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 255.9% on the widest side.
Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC
23:30 UTC · Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida · Season record: Orlando City SC 8-4-11 / Toronto FC 5-11-7
The market leans Orlando City SC at 51.2%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 246.8% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — D.C. United vs Atlanta United FC: 44.3% vs 29.8%.
- Most one-sided — FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC: the market gives FC Cincinnati 52.3%.
- Where books disagree most — FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC: 279.8% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 11.5% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The five-match slate shows a consistent pattern of tight margins across all games, with overround sitting between 11.3% and 11.8%—remarkably uniform pricing from the 19 bookmakers involved. This suggests strong consensus on where true probabilities lie rather than significant disagreement about any particular fixture. The markets are pricing all five matches as genuinely competitive, with no game deviating far from the others in terms of perceived volatility or uncertainty.
D.C. United versus Atlanta United stands out as the most home-favored matchup on the slate, with the market crediting D.C. a 44.3% win probability compared to Atlanta's 29.8%. This 14.5-point gap is notably larger than elsewhere, though the 25.8% draw probability remains substantial. By contrast, the other four fixtures cluster tightly around the 50-52% mark for home sides, with away win probabilities all in the 25-26% range. Cincinnati and Orlando emerge as the slight favorites within this tighter grouping at 52.3% and 51.2% respectively, though the differences are marginal.
Book spread variation tells another story: Charlotte at Charlotte shows the widest disagreement among bookmakers (279.8%), while Nashville brings the tightest consensus (255.9%). This suggests Atlanta-D.C. has found relatively stable pricing, whereas the Cincinnati game has prompted more divergent odds across the market. For punters, this variance matters—identical fixtures can offer meaningfully different payouts depending on which book is consulted.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:58 UTC. Odds move.