La Liga has 5 matches on Sunday, September 20. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | Getafe vs Málaga | 2.11 | 3.03 | 3.88 | 44.6% / 31.1% / 24.3% |
| 14:15 | Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid | 3.92 | 3.81 | 1.86 | 24.2% / 24.8% / 51.0% |
| 16:30 | Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Betis | 2.84 | 3.28 | 2.47 | 33.1% / 28.7% / 38.2% |
| 16:30 | Villarreal vs Levante | 1.57 | 4.26 | 5.26 | 59.9% / 22.1% / 17.9% |
| 19:00 | Valencia vs Real Sociedad | 2.73 | 3.34 | 2.47 | 34.2% / 27.9% / 37.9% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 17 books (Pinnacle, Betsson, William Hill, Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), Tipico). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Getafe vs Málaga
12:00 UTC · Estadio Coliseum, Getafe · Season record: Getafe 1-2-2 / Málaga 0-3-2
The market leans Getafe at 44.6%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 25.4% on the widest side.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
14:15 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · Season record: Atlético Madrid 3-1-1 / Real Madrid 4-0-1
The market leans Real Madrid at 51.0%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 23.5% on the widest side.
Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Betis
16:30 UTC · Riazor, La Coruña · Season record: Deportivo La Coruña 2-3-0 / Real Betis 4-0-1
The market can barely separate them — 33.1% against 38.2%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 15.4% on the widest side.
Villarreal vs Levante
16:30 UTC · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · Season record: Villarreal 0-2-3 / Levante 1-2-2
The market leans Villarreal at 59.9%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 25.6% on the widest side.
Valencia vs Real Sociedad
19:00 UTC · Mestalla Stadium, Manises · Season record: Valencia 0-1-4 / Real Sociedad 2-1-3
The market can barely separate them — 34.2% against 37.9%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 18.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Valencia vs Real Sociedad: 34.2% vs 37.9%.
- Most one-sided — Villarreal vs Levante: the market gives Villarreal 59.9%.
- Where books disagree most — Villarreal vs Levante: 25.6% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.2% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Madrid derby stands out as the most decisive matchup on the slate, with the away side priced at a decisive 51.0% implied probability—the highest win probability for any team across all five fixtures. Atlético Madrid as the home team sits at just 24.2%, making this the most one-sided contest by a clear margin. The draw at 24.8% suggests bookmakers see relatively little middle ground; the market is largely binary in how it views this fixture.
Villarreal versus Levante presents the steepest home advantage on the card, with the hosts at 59.9% implied probability and the away side given only 17.9%. This 42-point spread is substantially larger than any other pairing. Meanwhile, Getafe versus Málaga and Valencia versus Real Sociedad both feature tight matchups where home and away probabilities are separated by roughly 3 percentage points, though Valencia's draw is slightly lower at 27.9% compared to Getafe's 31.1%, suggesting a clearer separation toward the home side in the latter case.
Bookmaker disagreement is most pronounced in Villarreal's match, where the 25.6% book spread indicates genuine variance in how different operators price the home advantage. Getafe similarly shows a 25.4% spread. The Atlético-Real Madrid fixture, by contrast, shows a tighter 23.5% spread despite its extreme odds; this suggests broad consensus around the away-side favoritism rather than uncertainty. Margins across the slate range from 5.7% to 7.0%, with Valencia versus Real Sociedad carrying the highest overround at 7.0%.
Prices captured 2026-09-15 00:01 UTC. Odds move.