The Premier League weekend starts on Friday, with Ipswich and Liverpool clashing at Portman Road.
The away side is a heavy favorite but hasn't impressed under Andoni Iraola, so I'm backing Ipswich +0.5 with my Ipswich vs. Liverpool prediction.
Read on for my soccer picks for Friday, Sept. 4, with kickoff at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
| Top Pick: Ipswich +0.5 |
38% |
| Combo | 4.75x |
Ipswich vs Liverpool picks and predictions
My Ipswich vs Liverpool top pick: Ipswich +0.5 goals (38% probability)
Just one spot separates 12th-placed Ipswich and Liverpool, and backing the newly promoted team to get at least a point is the value play.
Ipswich beat Sunderland in the opening weekend and held a lead against Man United last weekend before succumbing. The key is that they are in strong attacking form, scoring two goals in each game, with their 4-2-3-1 creating plenty of chances.
That formation will help them get at Liverpool, who have drawn both games this season, showing their defensive weaknesses. Fullback is their main issue, with neither Milos Kerkez nor Jeremie Frimpong achieving what was expected of them since arriving in 2025.
Abdul Fatawu's speed against Kerkez could be key, creating one-on-one matchups that’ll isolate him. He looked dangerous against Man United, and the risk of his speed on the counter will push Kerkez back and limit his ability to support his teammates in attack.
By backing Ipswich +0.5, you cover both the draw and Ipswich win, which feels like value at anything up to a 50% chance.
My Ipswich vs Liverpool Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 goals (69% probability)
We’ve covered the threat against Liverpool’s fullbacks above, but it’s not just their left that’s at risk.
We saw something similar with Ipswich left-back Leif Davis’ runs creating opportunities against United, and you’d have to think that he and Daizen Maeda can create mismatches against Frimpong, who has had a real issue with his positioning on Liverpool’s right.
Beating him will either create crossing chances or lanes to run at new signing Jeremy Jacquet, who hasn’t yet settled since arriving over the summer.
Both teams have had Over 2.5 goals land in each of their Premier League games this season, and Liverpool should contribute, too.
Alexander Isak hasn’t found his Newcastle form, but his physical nature alongside Cody Gakpo and Victor Munoz, who’ll move into central areas from positions on the flank, can cause problems for Ipswich’s defense.
Gakpo, in particular, has started the season well, with a goal and an assist while averaging three shots per game.
The both teams to score market offers a slightly lower percentage chance, and feels like a marginally better way to attack this game than total goals, with BTTS landing in four of their collective four games so far.
Ipswich vs Liverpool same-game parlay (SGP)
Ipswich +0.5
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams to score - Yes
Of their four combined games this season, we've seen Over 3.5 goals land in three, and both teams to score in each. With both defenses still a work in progress, we can expect goals at Portman Road.
Ipswich vs Liverpool odds
 Ipswich |
 Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| 17% | Moneyline | 64% |
| 19% | Draw | 19% |
| Over 2.5 69% |
Total | Under 2.5 36% |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
How to watch Ipswich vs Liverpool
| Location | Portman Road, Ipswich, England |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 4, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | 72F, 17 mph winds, 20% PoP. |
Ipswich vs Liverpool key injuries
Ipswich: Jaden Philogene FWR (Out), Julio Enciso FWR (Questionable), Emersonn STR (Questionable), Azor Matusiwa CDM (Questionable), Florentino CDM (Questionable), Jack Taylor CM (Questionable)
Liverpool: Hugo Ekitike STR (Out), Giovanni Leoni DEF (Out), Conor Bradley RB (Out), Federico Chiesa FWR (Questionable), Joe Gomez DEF (Questionable)