The 2026 US Open continues on Friday, and DraftKings Predictions is giving us another pair of underdogs worth backing at attractive prices.
Daniel Merida is trading at just 40% against Alex Michelsen, who has advanced past the third round in just one of 12 Slam appearances. Merida is a perfect 9-0 in hardcourt matches against lower-ranked opponents this summer.
On the women’s side, two-time Grand Slam Finalist Jasmine Paolini is trading at just 38% against Sorana Cirstea, despite a career-best winning percentage on hardcourt.
Check out the latest US Open odds before diving into our US Open predictions and free tennis picks for Friday, Sept. 4.
🎾 US Open 2026: Key takeaways
- Favorites: Carlos Alcaraz: 47% | Aryna Sabalenka: 25%
- Court: Laykold
- Weather: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 80s to begin the tournament, with rain expected by midweek.
- Storyline: Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka are hoping to defend their 2025 US Open titles.
💰 Top US Open predictions for Thursday, Sept. 3
Yulia Putintseva moneyline 28%
Yulia Putintseva is the undervalued underdog at 28%.
Qinwen Zheng still owns the bigger serve, but it has been far too unreliable. She is landing just 52.8% of first serves, while Putintseva wins 56.8% of second-serve return points, 36.9% of return games, and converts 50.6% of break points.
Putintseva also leads the head-to-head 2-0, so she has already shown she can make Zheng uncomfortable.
Zheng was fortunate to survive a 16-year-old in the opening round, and at this price, I’m happy to back the steadier returner to make her work again.
💰 Top US Open predictions for Friday, Sept. 4
Daniel Merida moneyline 40%
It's been the summer of Daniel Merida, yet he's an underdog against Alex Michelsen.
The Spaniard is 9-2 during this North American hardcourt swing, with his only losses coming to Top 20 players. He made QFs at the Canada Masters and just sent Andrey Rublev packing in Round 2.
Merida has also proven to be one of the best returners on Tour. His 31.7% break rate leads all players in the last year, and his 41.2% of return points won stands at the top alongside Jannik Sinner.
He was playing Challengers and Qualifiers as recently as May. While overshadowed by the emergence of countryman Rafael Jodar, Merida's summer form simply cannot be ignored.
Jasmine Paolini moneyline 38%
In a classic case of an early encounter between two seeds, the two-time Slam Finalist and 2026 Wimbledon Quarterfinalist Jasmine Paolini opens as the underdog.
Pitted against big server Sorana Cirstea in her final Grand Slam appearance, this may seem like a fair price due to her Slam results on natural surfaces. However, her best career win percentage is on hardcourt, and she's made at least Round 3 in five consecutive Slams on the surface.
Paolini and Cirstea both have seven fourth-round appearances or better at Slams, despite Paolini making her main draw debut eleven years after Cirstea.
The 30-year-old Italian boasts return metrics above Tour average -- enough to combat a strong-but-not-elite Cirstea serve.
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📊 US Open odds: Favorites & full field
The 2026 US Open begins on Aug 30 and ends on Sept. 13.
Men's US Open odds
| Player | DK Predictions Probability |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 47% |
| Alexander Zverev | 23% |
| Ben Shelton | 13% |
| Taylor Fritz | 9% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 8% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 5% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 4% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 4% |
| Jakub Mensik | 4% |
Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
Women's US Open odds
| Player | DK Predictions Probability |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 26% |
| Coco Gauff | 22% |
| Iga Swiatek | 18% |
| Jessica Pegula | 9% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 7% |
| Elena Rybakina | 7% |
| Alexandra Eala | 7% |
| Karolina Muchova | 7% |
| Marta Kostyuk | 7% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 6% |
| Naomi Osaka | 5% |
DraftKings Predictions is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
🏆 US Open outright picks card
Phil Naessen's outright picks
Outright: Alexander Zverev 23%
French Open champ and Wimbledon finalist Alexander Zverev owns a 32-11 career record at the US Open, including a runner-up finish in 2020 and another semifinal appearance in 2021. He has also gone 18-2 in Grand Slam matches over the last 52 weeks while winning 92.6% of his service games.
His draw is excellent, with Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti the biggest quarterfinal threats and no Alcaraz, Djokovic, Shelton, or Fils before the final.
Men's long shot: Novak Djokovic 11%
Novak Djokovic is 95-15 for his career at the US Open and remains one of the most dangerous longshots in the field. He has gone 12-3 in Grand Slam matches over the last 52 weeks and still wins 55.3% of return points against second serves.
The 39-year-old legend's draw is manageable through the quarterfinals, where Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev, and Brandon Nakashima are the main threats standing between Djokovic and another deep New York run.
Women's outright: Coco Gauff 22%
Coco Gauff enters New York fresh off winning Cincinnati and owns a 20-7 career record at the US Open, including the 2023 title. She is 35-10 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks and has gone 11-3 in Grand Slam matches during that span.
Gauff’s return game remains the separator, and with a 48.0% return-points-won rate on hard courts, she has the profile and current form to win again in New York.
Women's long shot: Jessica Pegula 9%
Jessica Pegula is my women’s long shot after reaching the US Open final in 2024 and the semifinals again last year. She is 40-13 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, winning 49.6% of second-serve points with a 1.17 dominance ratio.
Her quarter is also favorable, with Karolina Muchova the biggest threat before a potential semifinal against Aryna Sabalenka. At her price, Pegula offers plenty of upside in New York.
Luc LeBlanc's outright picks
Men's outright: Arthur Fils 8%
Arthur Fils has made QFs or better at every Masters 1000 he's not withdrawn/retired from in 2026 and just captured his first big title in Cincinnati — where the champion has gone on to win in New York each of the last three years.
He's up to #5 in the race to Turin despite missing two of three Slams this year, and his 76.2% win rate ranks fourth on Tour (behind each of the last three US Open winners).
Fils also has a perfect 10-0 mark in deciding sets in 2026, and his 22 hardcourt wins lead the entire Tour. A healthy Fils is arguably a top-five player in the world, and he's in the midst of proving exactly why.
Men's long shot: Brandon Nakashima 1%
Five Americans are currently ranked within the Top 20 (plus Tommy Paul at 21), and it's the World No. 17 Brandon Nakashima who's burst onto the scene over the last two months.
While American fans have grown accustomed to Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton dominating the summer on grass, with Frances Tiafoe naturally heating up ahead of the Open, it's been the summer of Nak in 2026.
Nakashima made SFs or better in Washington, Montreal, and Cincinnati -- defeating the likes of Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Jodar, and Alex de Minaur.
His 22 hardcourt wins this year are the most on Tour alongside Arthur Fils. Although priced at a measly 1%, he's been the most consistent American player this summer.
Women's outright: Jessica Pegula 9%
Jessica Pegula enters the US Open as one of four players in contention for World No. 1, and a maiden Grand Slam would guarantee it if Elena Rybakina falls before the semifinal.
She's made two hardcourt finals in 2026, including Cincinnati, and her 29 wins on the surface are tied for the Tour lead. Hardcourt is her best surface by win rate, as the Open is her best Slam.
Her 2026 hardcourt stats are quite similar to her countrywoman Coco Gauff's (also in contention for that elusive #1), but it's the Buffalo native with the much more attractive price at 7% vs. Gauff's 15%.
The 32-year-old has made QFs or better in New York in three of the last four years, including her only Slam Final to date in 2024.
Women's long shot: Marta Kostyuk 7%
My long-shot French Open pick Marta Kostyuk made a run to the semifinal in Paris, then followed it up by matching that performance at Wimbledon on her worst statistical surface.
Her 80.5% win rate in 2026 trails only US Open favorite Aryna Sabalenka. She made QFs in Cincinnati (falling to eventual winner Coco Gauff), and lost a three-set duel to Iga Swiatek in Toronto. It's as though her elite return game has become surface-proof.
She's been aced at the lowest rate on Tour this year, and trails only Swiatek in break rate and return points won. A poor Australian summer skewed her hardcourt metrics, but the Ukrainian has been a top-five player on Tour since her early exit in Melbourne.
🎾 Surface breakdown: Laykold rewards complete hard-court games
The US Open is played on Laykold cushioned acrylic hard courts, the surface introduced at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in 2020 after the tournament spent more than four decades on DecoTurf.
The surface is generally classified as medium-fast, which gives aggressive players plenty of opportunities to shorten points with a big serve and a first-strike forehand. But the courts are not so quick that pure serving alone can carry a player through seven matches.
That is where return quality and second-serve performance become especially important. The players best equipped for Flushing Meadows are typically those who can protect their own second serve, attack weaker second deliveries, and turn neutral rallies into offensive positions quickly.
The conditions also reward clean ball-striking and efficient movement. Players who can take the ball early, redirect pace, and defend without surrendering court position tend to have the most complete profile for a deep US Open run.
Players to watch
- Men's: Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Arthur Fils
- Women's: Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka
Player profiles to target
- Big servers: The medium-fast Laykold courts reward players who can consistently earn free points and take control of rallies with their first serve.
- Return of serve: Strong returners remain essential at the US Open, especially players who can pressure second serves and consistently create break-point opportunities.
📢 Will Serena Williams play?
Yes, Serena Williams will play at the 2026 US Open, just not in singles.
Williams already reached the mixed doubles quarterfinals alongside Carlos Alcaraz and will now reunite with sister Venus Williams in the women’s doubles draw.
The partnership needs little introduction. Serena and Venus won 22 doubles titles together, including 14 Grand Slam championships, and remarkably finished 14-0 in major doubles finals. They also captured three Olympic gold medals and shared the doubles World No. 1 ranking in 2010.
📢 Will Carlos Alcaraz play?
Yes, Carlos Alcaraz will play in the 2026 US Open and enters as the defending champion after winning the title last year.
However, Alcaraz has not played a men’s singles match since early April, making match fitness one of the tournament’s biggest questions.
Despite the lengthy layoff, his US Open résumé is outstanding: Alcaraz owns a 24-3 career record in New York and has won the title twice.
📈 Odds movement & market notes
Jannik Sinner was the overwhelming favorite since his Wimbledon title, but the 2026 US Open futures market shifted sharply after Jannik Sinner withdrew with a knee injury, immediately strengthening Carlos Alcaraz's position as the men's favorite.
Alcaraz climbed from 29% to 35%, while Alexander Zverev moved into second and Novak Djokovic settled around 11%.
Aryna Sabalenka has led the women's market throughout the year. Elena Rybakina spent much of that time as the second choice before falling following an apparent Achilles injury in Cincinnati. Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek have since moved into the next two spots.
How to watch US Open 2026
- Main television broadcast: ESPN
- Court hopping coverage: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
US Open 2026 FAQ
Who are the 2026 US Open favorites?
The 2026 US Open favorites are defending US Open champions Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka.
When is the 2026 US Open?
The 2026 US Open runs from Aug 23 to Sept. 13, with the main draw beginning Sunday, Aug 30.
Where will the 2026 US Open be played?
The 2026 US Open will be played at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, located in Flushing Meadows-Corona Park, Queens, New York.
Are US Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?
No, the US Open odds are not the same across all sportsbooks. That's why its important to have as many prediction market accounts as you possibly can.